The reality behind the impending Idlib offensive

HTS fighters with the Al Qaeda flag patrol Idlib on the back of pickup truck

As US-Russia tensions continue to rise over the final opposition stronghold of Idlib, it is important to remember the situation is not as black and white as it is being portrayed.

The Syrian civil war is about to come to an end, sadly it seems that it is unavoidable that it will end with one final, bloody battle in Idlib, Northern Syria. As the world waits for the inevitable offensive the western media continues to remind the world of the Assad regimes potential actions in Idlib and the helpless democratic rebels sitting patiently to be slaughtered as the world turns a blind eye.

Of course this is far from the reality of the situation, however whether it the New York times warning of a 'horrific cost' to the upcoming offensive against the 'rebel fighters and civilian supporters', or the guardian with even more chilling warnings of Russia 'softening up the west for a bloodbath'. However a more measured and less emotive analysis shows a more complex picture. One of these complexities is the fact that in July 2017 HTS (formerly Al nusra, the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda) took control of the city from more moderate  groups and now control 70% of the province according to the Syrian observatory of human rights. Later in July 2017 after this takeover, Brett McGurk, the US special envoy for the global coalition to counter ISIL told a panel hosted by the Middle East institute that Idlib was the largest safe haven for Al Qaeda since 9/11.

"Idlib province is the largest al-qaeda safe-haven since 9/11, tied directly to Ayman al Zawahiri (The current leader of Al Qaeda), this is a huge problem." Brett McGurk July 27th 2017

Ignoring this advice the US has continued to warn against any Government offensive against Idlib, where HTS have refused to negotiate a reconciliation deal with the Government like in southern Syria in the summer and there have been widespread reports of HTS arresting hundreds of pro-Government sympathisers and even those in favour of reconciliation .

 The concern about civilians in Idlib from any Governments is perfectly reasonable and few can disagree, especially since civilians have suffered the brunt of the seven year long civil war. Idlib is estimated to be home to around 2.6 million civilians, many of them displaced from fighting earlier in the conflict. However Russian efforts to persuade Turkey to rid HTS from Idlib and replace them with more moderate factions such as the remnants of the Free Syrian Army have fallen on deaf ears.

It is therefore important to remember the reality of these 'rebel fighters' and prioritise assisting civilians in any upcoming offensive, not the 'rebel fighters'. What both the United States and Russia along with Syria need to ensure and cooperate on is the safety of the estimated 2.6 million or more civilians in the enclave and not the military situation of the remnants of Al Qaeda who thanks to reconciliation deals in other parts of the country were allowed to evacuate to Idlib. What the world needs to ensure is that another Aleppo style battle does not occur, where the civilian death toll far outweighed the military one at a shockingly high figure by modern standards of around 23,000 civilians killed. The potential for along drawn out siege such as Aleppo though is unfortunately high thanks to the larger number of militants involved (speculated to be between 18,000 to as many as 100,000) along with the presence of Turkish forces who have served as a deterrent to any Government offensive for the past year or so. Along with this and the presence of radical Al Qaeda and Jihadist linked groups as well as hard-line fighters from the FSA wanting to fight to the end mean the level of resistance and desperation could be far worse than Aleppo. However ignoring the problem is also not going to make it go away and with the dominant factions refusing to negotiate, the only practical way to end Syria's civil war for good is for an offensive on Idlib and a victory for Assad's authoritarian but secular regime over Islamist terrorism, with the moderate opposition in Syria all but wiped out several years ago.

At the same time although an offensive may likely be necessary it’s important that Russia and Syria are not given a free hand to disregard the welfare of the 2.6 million civilians and the west should hold them to account. There is one last hope to prevent an offensive if a agreement can be made at the Astana conference on the 8th September between Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran but unless Turkey acts against HTS, Syria and Russia will have too.

Article written by Robert John Luzi

3rd year student studying politics and IR at Portsmouth University

All opinions are my own 

Sources

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/world/middleeast/syria-idlib-assad.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/01/russia-softens-up-west-for-bloodbath-planning-in-idlib-syria

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/hayat-tahrir-al-sham-control-syria-idlib-170723215932668.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-01/truth-about-idlib-state-departments-own-words

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/08/syria-idlib-battle-regime-rebels-russia.html

http://www.syriahr.com/en/

https://southfront.org/hayat-tahrir-al-sham-continues-cracking-down-on-reconciliation-supporters-in-syrias-idlib-photos/